Iran’s ceasefire is extended amid rifts; dollar strengthens as policy pressure mounts
Trump extended the Iran ceasefire, citing a “fractured” leadership in Tehran while maintaining economic pressure through a naval blockade, even as tensions and stalled negotiations persist. The geopolitical uncertainty and renewed policy pressure on the Federal Reserve have supported a rebound in the US dollar, as markets weigh prolonged conflict risks alongside signals of a potential shift in monetary policy direction.
UK inflation rises as Iran-driven energy shock steadies pound amid dollar demand
UK inflation climbed to 3.3% in March, in line with expectations, as surging fuel and transport costs linked to the Iran conflict reversed earlier disinflation trends and raised concerns over prolonged price pressures. Despite the data, GBP/USD held steady as persistent geopolitical tensions kept the US dollar supported, offsetting sterling gains amid cautious monetary policy expectations.
Strong US retail sales & Fed policy shift signals pressure euro
EUR/USD edged lower after US retail sales beat forecasts, reinforcing dollar strength as resilient consumer spending—boosted by energy-driven price gains—supports the economic outlook. At the same time, expectations of a potential shift in the Fed’s inflation framework under Kevin Warsh have added to policy uncertainty, increasing downside pressure on the euro as the pair drifts toward key technical support levels.
Nigeria pushes record budget, financial reforms, & longer trading hours
Tinubu signed a record ₦68.32 trillion 2026 budget while extending the 2025 spending deadline to complete ongoing projects. In parallel, the CBN introduced the NOFR benchmark to modernise monetary transmission and boost market transparency, while NGX extended trading hours to 4 p.m. to deepen liquidity.
Sources: Punchng, Nairametrics, Leadership
Nigeria faces tightening liquidity & fiscal strain as reserves decline
Nigeria’s FX reserves fell to $48.6 billion, down $1.38 billion in five weeks, reflecting sustained outflows and external pressures, though the CBN maintains the decline is a normal market adjustment and not a concern. At the same time, rising system liquidity pressures—evidenced by a ₦4.1 trillion interbank deficit—alongside government borrowing from unclaimed funds and efforts to refute spending concerns, highlight tightening financial conditions and increased fiscal reliance on domestic buffers.
Sources: Nairametrics, Ngnmarket, Punchng
Ghana tightens FX controls while pivoting to diaspora capital
The BoG introduced stricter guidelines for non-resident margin and Vostro accounts, limiting their use to investment-related flows. At the same time, authorities are targeting up to $7.8bn in annual remittances by developing diaspora bonds and structured investment channels to redirect inflows from consumption toward financing infrastructure, SMEs, and long-term growth.
Sources: MyJoyOnline, GhanaWeb
WAEMU ramps up debt issuance as Togo’s rating underpins investor confidence
WAEMU member states plan to raise about $5.5 billion in Q2 2026 regional debt issuance—up over 18% year-on-year. Against this backdrop, Togo’s ‘B+’ rating with a stable outlook reflects sustained economic growth and fiscal reforms, reinforcing investor confidence even as the region increases borrowing to meet financing needs.
Sources: Ecofinagency, Spglobal
BEAC faces liquidity strain as banks shun injections, reserves under pressure
The Bank of Central African States concluded talks on restoration funds amid mounting external pressures, while regional FX reserves remain under strain despite potential support from higher oil prices. At the same time, banks declined a significant portion of BEAC’s liquidity injection—absorbing only about 73% of the latest offer.
Sources: Africanintelligence , Financialafrik, Businessincameoon
Oil surges as Hormuz attacks and supply disruptions intensify geopolitical risk
Oil prices jumped about $3 and moved above $100 after U.S. data showed declining fuel stocks and reports of gunfire on container ships in the Strait of Hormuz. The rally was driven primarily by escalating geopolitical tensions—Iran seizing vessels and the U.S. maintaining a naval blockade—raising fears of prolonged supply disruption in a key global oil transit route.
Nigeria’s oil revenue gains offset by global price risks
Nigeria’s oil production rebound to about 1.84 million bpd is boosting revenues by roughly $78.5 million daily, driven by improved security and higher output levels. However, escalating US-Iran tensions and oil price volatility are raising concerns over sustained fuel costs, with rising crude prices reducing the likelihood of near-term petrol price relief despite stronger domestic output.
Sources:BusinessDay, Legit
