Inflation surge and oil-driven volatility cloud US dollar outlook
US inflation rose to 3.3% in March, in line with expectations, as energy costs driven by geopolitical tensions pushed price pressures to a two-year high. The dollar weakened to a six-week low on softer data and easing geopolitical sentiment, though a rebound in oil prices has revived expectations of a more hawkish Federal Reserve stance, supporting a partial recovery in the dollar index.
Markets firm as geopolitics and soft US data weigh on dollar
Global markets traded firmer with equities supported by optimism over US–Iran negotiations and corporate earnings, while bonds gained and oil remained elevated. The dollar weakened on softer US inflation data, lifting GBP/USD to a six-week high, as persistent energy-driven inflation risks keep expectations for a cautious Federal Reserve.
Sources: Bloomberg, CurrencyNews
Eurozone outlook darkens as IMF cuts growth and ECB flags downside risks
The IMF downgraded eurozone growth to 1.1% from 1.4%, citing energy shocks and rising inflation linked to the Iran war, which continue to weigh on economic momentum. ECB President Christine Lagarde warned that the economy is tracking below its baseline scenario and closer to adverse conditions.
Nigeria faces tightening outlook amid IMF warnings, reserve risks & shifting liquidity
The IMF has downgraded Nigeria’s near-term growth outlook, citing rising global and domestic risks, even as medium-term projections point to a gradual recovery toward 4.3% by 2027 if reforms are sustained. External pressures remain elevated, with Nigeria seeking support from multilateral lenders as public debt increased to $111 billion by the end of 2025 and Fitch warning reserves could decline toward $47 billion, while domestic liquidity conditions show tightening as currency outside banks fell by about N200.70 billion.
Sources: Guardian, MarketNews, NewTelegraph
Rising poverty contrasts with stronger tax revenues & tighter financial oversight
Nigeria’s poverty rate climbed to 63% in 2025 despite easing inflation, underscoring weak income growth and limited transmission of macroeconomic gains to households. The CBN has tightened oversight of the rapidly expanding digital finance sector to safeguard stability, while the manufacturing sector showed resilience, generating N1.17 trillion in VAT revenue.
Sources: Vanguard, Punch, Nairametrics
Ghana moves to ease fuel costs as central bank urges IMF reforms
Ghana has announced fuel tax cuts and temporary subsidies to cushion households and businesses from rising pump prices driven by global oil market shocks linked to Middle East tensions. Meanwhile, BoG Governor Asiama has called for sweeping reforms to IMF support frameworks and faster action on Africa’s debt crises, warning that current tools are too slow to address mounting financing gaps and overlapping economic shocks across the continent.
Sources: Nairametrics, CitiNews
Central & West African debt markets expand, credit growth improves amid risks
Lending in the CEMAC region rose by 10.7% in 2025 while non-performing loans edged lower. Meanwhile, regional debt dynamics remain concentrated, with Gabon, Cameroon and Congo accounting for around 80% of CEMAC market debt, as WAEMU countries plan to raise about $5.5 billion in Q2 2026.
Sources: EcofinAgency, EcofinAgency
Oil-led growth lifts Senegal as Côte d’Ivoire deepens financial inclusion
Senegal’s economy expanded by 6.7% in 2025, driven largely by oil production and agriculture, though weak performance in non-oil sectors underscores persistent structural challenges and risks to sustained growth. Meanwhile, Côte d’Ivoire’s financial sector continues to deepen, with microfinance savings approaching $1 billion as digital innovation and expanding access to financial services support inclusion and broader economic resilience across the region.
Sources: EcofinAgency, FinancialAfrik
Oil market volatility intensifies as supply shocks, geopolitical tensions & shifting forecasts collide
Global oil markets have been rocked by a sharp supply shock, with OPEC production plunging by roughly 25–27% in March amid disruptions tied to the Iran conflict, driving up prices and raising risks of spikes per barrel. Prices surged on US actions in the Strait of Hormuz but have since stabilized as traders weigh fragile diplomatic progress against ongoing physical shortages, while Goldman Sachs has adjusted its forecasts in response to ceasefire developments and persistent uncertainty over supply flows.
Nigeria advances gas expansion & revenue gains as FG defends fuel pricing
Nigeria and Morocco are set to sign a $25 billion transcontinental gas pipeline agreement this year, marking a major step toward boosting regional energy integration and exports to Europe. Meanwhile, NNPC remitted N1.8 trillion to the Federation Account in February 2026, as the government defended domestic petrol prices as being about 50% below global averages.
Sources: Punch, Nairametrics
