Market Rally on Geopolitical Shock as U.S. Economic Data Paints Mixed Picture
Financial markets saw a broad uptick this week, with Bitcoin reclaiming multi-week highs around $90,000 and risk assets gaining after U.S. forces captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, a move that lifted sentiment across energy, equities, and crypto markets. At the same time, U.S. economic indicators showed continued domestic headwinds: manufacturing activity contracted further with the ISM PMI at 47.9, below expectations, and private sector job growth in December came in softer than forecast at 41,000.
FTSE 100 Climbs as Pound Wavers Against USD Amid Geopolitical and PMI Signals
The FTSE 100 extended gains this week, supported by broader market strength and a rising British pound, with the index around fresh multi-session highs as traders digest mixed UK data and upbeat sentiment. Meanwhile, the GBP/USD currency pair softened below the mid-1.3400s as geopolitical tensions buoyed the U.S. dollar and weaker UK manufacturing PMI weighed on sterling, reflecting a cautious outlook for FX markets.
Eurozone Inflation Cooling Supports ECB’s Steady Policy as EUR/USD Outlook Turns Constructive
Eurozone inflation eased to around the ECB’s 2% target in December, reinforcing expectations that the European Central Bank will keep interest rates unchanged in early 2026 amid subdued price pressures and slower core inflation dynamics. This stabilisation in inflation, coupled with diverging monetary policy paths—where the Fed’s easing lowers the dollar’s yield edge—underpins a constructive outlook for the EUR/USD pair into 2026, with markets eyeing potential renewed euro strength and a continuation of its multi-year rally.
Sources: Financial Times, Forex
Nigeria’s Liquidity Expands and Activity Accelerates Even as Banking Sector Struggles with Rising Bad Loans
Nigeria’s broad money supply surged to about N122.95 trillion in November 2025, marking a continued expansion in liquidity despite tight monetary policy settings by the Central Bank of Nigeria. At the same time, the banking sector saw non-performing loans climb above the prudential 5 % threshold after the CBN withdrew pandemic-era forbearance, highlighting emerging credit quality pressures. Meanwhile, economic activity showed resilience with the CBN’s PMI rising to 57.6, signaling the fastest private sector expansion in 2025.
Nigeria Raises N2.51tn from Fixed-Income Auctions as Equities Market Crosses N100trn Milestone
The Federal Government of Nigeria successfully raised ₦2.51 trillion through Treasury Bills and Open Market Operations (OMO) auctions, driven by strong investor demand across maturities and robust participation in the fixed-income market. At the same time, the Nigerian stock market hit a historic milestone, with total equities market capitalization surpassing the ₦100 trillion mark in early January 2026, reflecting strong buying interest and renewed investor confidence at the start of the year.
BoG Advances FX Support, Tightens Remittance Rules and Pioneers Digital Market Oversight
The Bank of Ghana (BoG) announced plans to inject up to US$1 billion into the foreign exchange market in January 2026 under its Foreign Exchange Intermediation Programme to stabilise liquidity and support the cedi, continuing interventions that have helped strengthen the currency. At the same time, the central bank has issued strict new regulatory guidelines for International Money Transfer Operators (IMTOs) to enhance oversight, protect foreign exchange inflows, and strengthen consumer safeguards in the remittance sector. Furthermore, the Bank of Ghana and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) have begun joint oversight of digital markets following the historic signing of the Virtual Asset Service Providers (VASP) Law, creating a dual-regulatory framework for the country’s burgeoning digital asset economy.
CEMAC Opens Private Credit Bureau to Boost Lending While Senegal Bonds Rise on IMF Optimism
The Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC) has licensed Creditinfo Central Africa to operate a private credit bureau across its six member states, aiming to expand credit information coverage, reduce lending risk, and improve access to finance for individuals and businesses in the region. Meanwhile, Senegal’s international bonds climbed sharply as investor optimism grew over the prospects of a new IMF lending programme, lifting prices of dollar- and euro-denominated debt to multi-week highs amid hopes of fiscal support and stability.
Sources: EcofinAgency, CNBCAfrica
Oil Markets React to Venezuela Turmoil Amid Oversupply Pressures and Annual Losses
Oil prices showed mixed movements this week as Brent and WTI rose about $1 a barrel on Monday while traders weighed the potential impact of the U.S. capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and implications for crude flows from the country’s vast reserves.Despite this uptick, global markets remain burdened by ample supply and subdued demand, with crude benchmarks logging their steepest annual decline since 2020 after a nearly 20% drop in 2025, reflecting persistent oversupply and production outpacing consumption.
Sources: WorldStreetJournal, CNBC
NNPCL Profits Rise as Petrol Prices Jump on Dangote Refinery Concerns
The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) reported a 12.3 % increase in profit to ₦502 billion in November 2025, extending its earnings momentum despite lower overall revenue compared with the previous month. At the same time, petrol ex-depot prices surged to around ₦800 per litre as private depot owners raised costs amid reports of a planned maintenance shutdown at the Dangote Refinery’s petrol unit, driving retail fuel prices higher across major Nigerian cities.
